My real worry about the trail is sustaining it mentally and physically for the six months I need to complete it. I’m sure it will mess with the body pretty hard, specifically my old friend Iliotibial Band, which if not stretched out has caused me loads of pain during past hikes. I cried coming off of Mt. Washington three years ago after three days of hardcore hiking. I’m starting daily stretching exercises now that I’m five weeks away.
The trail will be tough, without doubt. When you look at the basic stats, the dropoff rate is severe. Almost 20% of hikers don’t even make it to Neel’s Gap, 30 miles from Springer. I suspect these are the folks who have no idea what they’re getting into and learn quickly that backpacking is not for them. I’m pretty sure I know what I’m getting into at this point.
Still, even the seasoned hikers suffer have trouble completing the whole trail. Roughly half of the thru-hikers are gone by the Smokies, 160 miles away. Another 10% drop out in Virginia. Only about 1 in 4 thru-hikers makes it all the way to Katahdin.
By the way, all these stats come from the Appalachian Trail Conservancy: http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site/c.jkLXJ8MQKtH/b.851143/
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